Energy, Power & Capex

Energy, Power & Capex

· 217 words · 2 minutes reading time

Energy, Power & Capex: Stargate, the Big-4, and the Gigawatt Era

TL;DR

  • Big-4 hyperscaler 2026 AI capex = ~$725B combined (Microsoft $190B; Amazon ~$200B; Alphabet up to $190B; Meta up to $145B per Q1 2026 guidance).
  • Stargate = $500B / 10 GW by 2029; ~7 GW under contract by end-2025.
  • xAI Colossus + Colossus 2 target gigawatt-scale, including ~1.1+ GW of Solaris-supplied gas turbines (Memphis + Mississippi).
  • A 1 GW AI data center consumes power equivalent to ~750,000 US homes; grid interconnect, not chips, is now the bottleneck.

The number to remember

$725 billion — combined 2026 AI capex of MSFT, AMZN, GOOGL, META.

Why power is the bottleneck

  • Per-chip TDP: 700 W (H100) → 1,200 W (GB200) → ~1 kW (Ironwood).
  • 100K GB200 = ~120 MW just at the silicon; double with cooling+networking.
  • Permitting a new 1 GW interconnect in the US takes 3–7 years.

Strategic implications for CTOs

  1. Lock multi-year power PPAs early (Anthropic's $100B Amazon deal includes capacity reservations).
  2. Site selection now matters more than chip selection — ERCOT, PJM, Pacific NW where excess capacity exists.
  3. Co-locate with renewables + batteries (Tesla Megapacks at Colossus, SB Energy at Stargate Milam).

References

  • Statista / Tom's Hardware (May 2026) on Big-4 capex
  • openai.com Stargate announcements; anthropic.com/news/anthropic-amazon-compute
  • SemiAnalysis Colossus 2 piece

Series

LLM Pre-Training 2026

Energy, Power & Capex