Training Cost Economics 2026

Training Cost Economics 2026

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Training Cost Economics 2026

TL;DR

  • DeepSeek-V3 final pre-training: 2.788M H800-hours = $5.576M at $2/hr rental (paper, Table 1). Excludes R&D, salaries, ~$1B of owned H800 hardware, ablations, post-training.
  • Llama 3.1 405B: ~$170M est., 3.8e25 FLOP on 16K H100s over ~54 days.
  • Grok 4 median: $490M (Epoch AI, 2025) — two independent methods (H100 rental + amortized hardware+power) both yielded ~$490M.
  • GPT-5 total compute: ~5e25 FLOP (Epoch AI estimate; less than GPT-4.5 at >1e26).
  • OpenAI 2024 cloud spend: $7B ($5B R&D + ~$2B inference); 2025 projected ~$9B R&D.

What is and isn't in the headlines

Cost categoryDeepSeek-V3 $5.5MLlama 3.1 $170MGPT-5 (Epoch est.)
Final pre-training run
Hardware capex❌ (rental price)partial
Ablations / experiments
R&D salaries
Failed runs

The CFO interpretation

Headline numbers understate true cost by 5–20×. Use Epoch AI's amortized-hardware methodology for "all-in" comparisons.

References

  • arXiv:2412.19437; arXiv:2407.21783; epoch.ai/gradient-updates/why-gpt5-used-less-training-compute-than-gpt45-but-gpt6-probably-wont; epoch.ai/data-insights/grok-4-training-resources; epoch.ai/data-insights/openai-compute-spend

Series

LLM Pre-Training 2026

Training Cost Economics 2026